This good , but
Getting the plan right is crucial. Errors would heighten the threat of a double-dip recessionFrom The Globe and Mail Theres a general consensus that the massive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and support of the financial system undertaken by governments and central banks around the world prevented the deep recession of 2008-2009 from devolving into the Second Great Depression. Policy-makers were able to avoid a depression because they had learned from the policy mistakes made during the Great Depression of the 1930s and Japans near depression of the 1990s. As a result, policy debates have shifted to arguments about what the recovery will look like: V-shaped rapid return to potential growth, U-shaped slow and anemic growth or even W-shaped a double dip. During the global economic free fall between last fall and this spring, an L-shaped economic and financial Armageddon was still firmly in the mix of plausible scenarios. But the crucial policy issue ahead is how to time and sequence the exit strategy from this massive monetary and fiscal easing. Clearly, the current fiscal path being pursued in most advanced economies – the reliance of the United States, the euro zone, the United Kingdom, Japan and others on very large budget deficits and rapid accumulation of public debt – is unsustainable.
via RGE – “Desperately seeking an exit strategy” New Roubini Project Syndicate Op-Ed.
It can be seen as part of the idea that the economy rcovers but people don’t. The second fact is not given much weight. The l- shape is real for most. What has happened is that the ship of state, with fewer salaries to pay, has righted itslef, but at the cost to 20 % of the population severeley, and 80% partially.